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A Comparative Study of Visioning-Backcasting Initiatives
Overview of the Study
As a result of a TIAS webinar held in February 2010 on visioning and backcasting for sustainability entitled,
"Getting into the Right Lane for 2050", the participants of the webinar considered it worthwhile to undertake a more formal comparison of various recent projects that use backcasting (e.g. SCENES, Right Lane 2050, World Water Assessment Programme, World Business Council for Sustainable Development, QUEST, etc.). The primary result of this exercise is a guidance document to support those undertaking such studies currently, but also to inform policy makers about the value of, and proper interpretation of backcasting studies.
The Focus
The study will compare visioning/scenario exercises and projects that have used or are using backcasting in order to learn more about the effectiveness of various approaches and determine what works and what does not in particular situations and for particular issues or sectors. It will help to familiarize potential users with the idea of backcasting as a tool for strategic discourse. It will illustrate using examples from current and past backcasting exercises., that backcasting is by nature broader than planning even though many planning exercises also begin with a goal.
Among the specific questions to be addressed are the following:
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What approaches and methods have been applied in backcasting studies?
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What are the important steps involved in developing an effective backcasting process?
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What is meant by rigour in backcasting?
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How can a more formal backcasting process complement visioning and forward-looking scenario-building exercises?
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Are certain themes better suited to backcasting than others?
Approach
The study involves a scoping exercise of relevant case studies, a review of relevant literature, as well as preliminary input from experts through a mini-survey, and finally an experts workshop. Subsequent to the case study and literature review, a framework for a meaningful comparison of backcasting studies will be developed. In addition to examining backcasting efforts with regard to methods applied, a qualitative assessment of the process itself will be undertaken including an evaluation of stakeholder participation throughout a given backcasting exercise, because this determines the extent to which learning processes take place among stakeholders from different sectors, backgrounds, etc. This also adds emphasis to the importance of conducting a proper stakeholder assessment.
Experts Survey: Through expert input, the study team will be able to verify and improve on the framework developed and refine the goals of and process for the workshop.
Experts Workhop: Approximately 20 experts will be invited to a workshop to be held in Budapest in March. The focus of the workshop will be on addressing a more refined set of questions emerging from case study and literature review and the survey. Possible themes are low-carbon futures and climate change, biodiversity, and land use, in order to demonstrate how backcasting can be applied.
Products of the Study
The main outcome of the study will be a guidance document to support future efforts to undertake backcasting studies. The form which the guidance takes will be influenced by the initial findings of our review, but a set of guidelines is envisioned, as well as the identification of gaps requiring further attention and relevant issues for agenda setting. This will be complemented and supported by a webinar series and journal article. Related events (conferences, workshops, etc) will be exploited to disseminate these results. The results are intended to inform both the scientific and policy sectors., and will be disseminated to those organisations and individuals involved in backcasting (and visioning) exercises, as well as those that sponsor such initiatives.
Background Literature
The Steering Group
Several of the participants of the "Right Lane" webinar have formed a steering group for this study. They are from diverse organisations, and most have been or are involved involved in a variety of scenario/visioning exercises involving backcasting including
SCENES,
Getting into the Right Lane for 2050,
Global Scenario Group,
World Water Scenarios (UNESCO),
VISIONS 2050 and
QUEST.
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